IS THiERE A lARGE RISK OF RADIATION? A CRITlt:Al REVIEW OF PESSIMISTIC ClAIMS*

Work performed under Memorandum of Agreement between Argonne National laboratory and Harvard University *A short version of this report will be published in Environment Internationcal, INTRODUCTION From the earliest times men have studied the world around them and tried to find causes for their successes, their ailments and their tragedies. In the 2Oth century, many technological triumphs have been based upon scientific knowledge that is not widely shared. The misunderstanding, often deliberate, of the scientific bases for technology, can lead to foolish predictions: on the one hand excessive optimism in the technological triumph itself, and on the other, predictions of catastrophe that cannot, in fact, occur. In this report we address one particular misunderstood concept-radiation. We now know that radiation is ubiquitous. But since it was first discovered, progressively by Huygens, Maxwell and Roentgen, mankind has learned to observe it, measure it, control it, and use it. It is a natural background, a necessity of life, a pollutant when in excess, a cure for disease, a cause of disease. Some persons make a sharp distinction between natural and man-made radiation. But in practice this distinction is fuzzy. The natural background can be reduced or increased by our actions. We can build houses to avoid radon gas or to trap it; by being careless with fluorocarbons we can allow excessive! amounts of ultraviolet light from the sun to penetrate the earth's atmosphere and reach its inhabited surface. To those who understand the physics of radiation and begin to understandl the biology, this is now commonplace; it certainly excites wonder, as do all of nature's works; it engenders caution, but rarely fear. But among those who have not understood, fear is a common response-an irrational fear that can prevent rational action to achieve the desired benefits and reduce hazards while introducing a minimum of new hazards. X-rays have been with us since the 1890's and radioactivity was discovered soon thereafter, and while there was some fear of the usual X-rays, the widespread public fear did not arise until 1945 when the first atomic bomb exploded. When fear exists, there will, in a free society, be those who exploit the fear for their own ends, who feed it and nourish it. Those who search for truth and believe that in truth lies future prosperity (and act thereon, whether for their own ends or otherwise) usually try to ignore such exploitation. The exaggerated claims …